Opinion: Survival of the Illest in a Chaotic Lightweight Winter (2024)


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Watching Will Brooks,camera in his phone flipped 180 degrees and focused on his grinningface as he screams “We in, boy!” with the true jubilation of a kidon Christmas, it’s clear he got the gift he desperately wanted,even if it’s the middle of June.

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It has been three and a half years since his breakthroughclobbering of powerhouse grappler SatoruKitaoka on New Year’s Eve in 2012. It has been just over twoyears since his short-notice upset of MichaelChandler to take the BellatorMMA lightweight title and a little less than that since heclimbed onto a social media soapbox and made it abundantly clear hewasn’t especially interested in reigning as Bellator’s champion, oranyone’s champion, if it wasn’t the UFC’s. Now, he has thatchance.

Scott Coker and Bellator knew what was going to happen and, true tohistorical form, moved business along swiftly. Coming off of hisNovember title defense over Polish leg lock specialist Marcin Held,Brooks was making about $50,000 to show and $50,000 to win inBellator; little birdies say the promotion offered him about$150,000 per fight. “Ill Will” was happy to balk at the offer,having made it clear that he wanted to be in the Ultimate Fighting Championship, no ifs, ands or buts. Just ashe had done with former Strikeforcemiddleweight champion Jake Shieldssix years ago -- much to the chagrin of the fighter and his latefather and manager -- Coker released Brooks from his contractoutright, knowing a bidding war for a disinterested champion was awaste of time, even if it undermines the fighter’s leverage innegotiation and ability to score a fat contract.

June 15 was the first day that Brooks was officially a free agent,no strings attached, welcome to sign with any promotion he chose.It took a mere matter of hours for the UFC to announce his signing.By 3:30 p.m. ET, the MMA world already knew that Brooks was finallya UFC lightweight and that he’d be debuting in just over threeweeks at “The Ultimate Fighter 23” Finale, filling in for JamesKrause against RossPearson. Better still for Brooks, despite Bellator’s decisionto release him rather than negotiate, he will debut in the UFCmaking approximately $50,000 and $50,000, with his purse escalatingfrom there, meaning he didn’t even get lowballed and pressured intotaking less money to chase his dream, despite the fact Zuffa had noreal reason to match what he was making in his last Bellatorfight.

Up to this point, things really couldn’t have worked out muchbetter for Brooks. However, now is the time where the figurativerubber meets the road. Not only is Brooks fighting a qualityopponent in less than a month, but he’s coming into the UFC withthe expectation -- both from himself and the MMA populace -- thathe will quickly emerge as a serious title contender in the deepest,most talented and resultantly unforgiving weight class in MMA. Thelightweight division can humble you so quickly, so cruelly, thatyou forget Christmas, be it in June, December or any other month,ever existed at all.

I am loath to say “be careful what you wish for.” That adagesuggests there was a more prudent decision for Brooks to make andthat in his zealousness for a UFC contract he may have neglected toconsider the consequences of his action. That idea doesn’t applyhere. Brooks turns 30 October; he’s in his physical prime; andwhile the money isn’t the same as what Bellator offered outright,if he enters the UFC ranks with multiple wins, he may quicklyeclipse that. Brooks has been adamant about proving he’s the best155-pounder in the world, and the UFC is the only place he cantruly achieve that goal. Even if his UFC run proves unsuccessful,it’s not as if Brooks has bamboozled himself by getting asurprisingly sturdy contract for the opportunity to chaselegitimate greatness instead of going to fight Ben Askren inMalaysia for OneChampionship.

If I’m going to continue to belabor a metaphor as I’m known to do,Brooks ought to be careful with his Christmas bounty in June. Evenif you get the gift of your dreams, that doesn’t mean it’s notdangerous or that it can’t backfire. Even if you’ve spent the lastseveral years dreaming about unwrapping your official Red Rydercarbine action, two-hundred shot range model air rifle with thecompass in the stock and the thing that tells time, you can stillshoot your eye out.

As I said, the lightweight division is beyond unforgiving, acrucible inside of a shark tank. On the whole, the fighters aremore well-rounded and possess more dynamic, fight-ending abilities,and there are so many more of these sorts of athletes crawlingaround. Maybe Brooks will find a particular inspiration as hestands on the precipice of potential greatness, elevate his gameand run roughshod to a UFC lightweight title shot, but individualagency has played an unsettlingly reduced role at 155 pounds.

Consider another former Bellator lightweight champion, EddieAlvarez. Sure, Alvarez is about to be blessed with the UFClightweight title shot MMA folks have thirsted for over the lastseven or eight years. On the other hand, Alvarez entered the UFChot off his thrilling November 2013 rematch win over Chandler, onlyto be handed a one-sided decision loss to a surging DonaldCerrone 11 months later. The matchmaking didn’t get much easierfrom there, as Alvarez was lined up for bouts against perennialdivisional standouts GilbertMelendez and former UFC champ AnthonyPettis.

In both cases, Alvarez abandoned his fan-friendly firefight styleof combat for his wrestling, sneaking by Melendez on points beforegetting lucky against Pettis by eking out a split decision thata majority of the MMA public thought he lost. Alvarez, one ofthe 10 best lightweights ever, finally gets his crack at a UFCtitle, but he’s 2-1 in the promotion, has yet to have one greatperformance that reflects the sort of fighter he is, was blessedwith favorable judging in a make-or-break fight and is stilllargely getting a title shot because the oft-injured KhabibNurmagomedov and TonyFerguson couldn’t get into the cage for their slated titleeliminator two months ago.

The fact that Alvarez has underachieved in the UFC but still earneda title bid against Rafael dosAnjos seems to suggest that you don’t always need agaudy eight-fight winning streak in the division to get achampionship crack. However, Alvarez’s situation was born out of ahost of chaotic factors that always seem to be part and parcel ofthe lightweight division, like brutal matchmaking, upset losses andill-timed injuries to key contenders and questionable judging inthe sort of razor-thin, nip-tuck fights that 155-pounders tend toproduce. If you try to enumerate how many specific outcomes neededto occur in order for Alvarez to be the next man on deck for dosAnjos, you suddenly realize what a tempestuous world thelightweight division is.

When those forces conspire against you, when you’re the target,this lightweight division will ruin your life with flyweight speedand heavyweight power. Look at the aforementioned Pettis. Hiselectrifying stoppages of Cerrone, Melendez and BensonHenderson may constitute the most outstanding three-fightwinning streak I’ve ever seen in MMA. In a division where anarchyreigns, it looked like “Showtime” had the prodigious offense toshield himself from the chaos. Yet Pettis is 0-3 since the Melendezwin and is now bound for the 145-pound division in August. Twoyears ago, he was a pound-for-pound king, and now he has beenshamed out of the lightweight courtyard.

What if dos Anjos hadn’t smashed his orbital bone so quickly inDallas? What if Pettis had gotten the decision he deserved againstAlvarez? If either of those things happened, he wouldn’t have endedup in a stylistically challenging matchup against a fringecontender like EdsonBarboza, who hung that third straight L on him. Yes, the linebetween winning and losing in MMA is always a damn fine one, andthat is intensified in deeper, more skilled weight categories. At155 pounds, falling on the wrong side of the line at the wrong timeor against the wrong guy can teleport you straight intoprofessional purgatory.

Brooks need not look any further than his own career trajectory ifhe needs a reminder of how stormy the lightweight seas are. WhenBrooks smashed through Kitaoka, he was an undefeated nobodyandopened as a +400 underdog, yet came out of the fight lookinglike the Next Big Thing in the division. The one time Brooks tasteddefeat, he was knocked silly by Saad Awad, a+300 underdog by fight time, in just 43 seconds. When theyrematched eight months later, Brooks handled him with ease.

What was Brooks’ great breakout moment? Stepping into a Bellatortitle shot on a week’s notice against Chandler -- a fight in whichbettors pounded the favorite so hard that Brooks closed as high as+700 and above on some sportsbooks. How did he win? In a fight mostpeople scored 48-47 Chandler or a 47-47 draw courtesy of Brooks’big third round, “Ill Will” won a split decision without a single 10-8 score.His entire MMA career, even before entering the UFC’s 155-poundgauntlet, has been a microcosm of the lightweight division’sunrelenting volatility.

For now, it’s still Christmas in June for Brooks and for all thosethrilled to see him tangle with the best the division has to offer.However, when you face the best lightweights in the world on aconstant basis, matchmaking, live underdogs, injuries, super-closefights and iffy judging are always swirling in the atmosphere,ready to storm. Brooks need only to take a look around him -- oreven in the mirror – to realize how quickly the 155-pound divisioncan turn a summery Christmas into a long, hellish winter.

Opinion: Survival of the Illest in a Chaotic Lightweight Winter (2024)
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